OK, America, here are the choices.
The start of the college football season, shown live with selloutcrowds for games at Tennessee and Ohio State, or taped Olympics fromSydney, Australia.
Deion Sanders patrolling Washington's secondary against Dallas,live on 'Monday Night Football,' or taped Olympics from Sydney,Australia.
Pennant-race baseball and NFL football, or taped Olympics fromSydney, Australia.
NBC is betting a chunk of change-about $705 million for rightsalone-that it can lure audiences away from the traditionalattractions of a crowded, fall sports calendar to watch the Olympicson tape.
Richard Luker, founder of the ESPN-Chilton poll, believes it won'tbe easy.
'The Olympics is a flagship property, but the aspect of tape andtiming is huge,' he said. 'They're hitting at the biggest time of thesports year and not during waking hours. People will know theresults. And so much more is going on. There are so many more choicesin the same amount of time.
'Last time, they were in the United States and they were promotedto the max. Now they're in Sydney, in the middle of the night.There's no buzz about this Olympics. We just don't seem to care. It'snot the Summer Games. It's the Fall Games. You're right in the teethof so many other things.'
The last time NBC faced this situation was 1988 at Seoul, wherethe time difference forced much of the coverage to be taped. Thenetwork promised a 21.2 prime-time rating to advertisers then butaveraged just 17.9. That translated to nearly 3 million fewerhouseholds, creating advertising 'make-goods' that NBC had to pay andcut drastically into the profit.
And that was in the pre-Internet environment, when every resultwasn't merely a mouse click away.
Dick Ebersol, president of NBC Sports, said the networkanticipated between 17.5 and 18.5 for Sydney after doing 21.6 forprime-time coverage of the 1996 Games at Atlanta. 'An offshore Gamestends to be 15 to 20 percent lower than live, domestic Games,' hesaid.
Then, there is the issue of opposition programming.
On the first Saturday of the Olympics, more than 104,000 fans willjam Neyland Stadium in Knoxville for the Florida-Tennessee footballgame, to be shown on CBS. A week later, there will be some 95,000fans at renovated Ohio Stadium in Columbus for the Penn State-OhioState game, probably on ABC.
'The competition is tougher with pro football, prime-time fare,maybe some meaningful baseball pennant races,' Ebersol said. 'TheOlympics appeal to an audience that is vastly different from theaudience that turns to American sports.'
NBC also faces the issue of attracting an audience to some obscureevents. Folded in with track and Dream Team basketball are fencingand field hockey. For every gymnastics and swimming event there'salso sailing and shooting.
There is plenty of time to show all of it. The network is offering441 1/2 hours of Olympic programming, well over double the 171 1/2hours it carried from Atlanta in 1996. Of the total, 279 hours willbe carried on cable over MSNBC and CNBC, with the remaining 162 1/2hours on the main network.
'NBC does Olympics very well,' said Ed Goren, executive producerof Fox Sports, which has the NFL and baseball during the Games. 'Ifthey can create a passion with specific athletes, they can carry anaudience because of emotional involvement. NBC will do an outstandingjob creating personalities. Storytelling is what the Olympics is allabout.'
Because of the 15-hour time difference between Sydney and NewYork, all of NBC's Olympic programming will be on tape. 'Our mostimportant target is to reach the largest possible audience,' Ebersolsaid. 'To do that, all of the Olympics will be seen on tape.'
That means results will be available elsewhere, well in advance ofthe telecasts. Goren thinks that might be a positive instead of anegative.
'We like to wave the flag, so it helps if Americans do well,'Goren said. 'If Americans are on the leaderboard and the events areover, we want to see how they won or how they were upset. So, thedelay can work in their favor. It's delicate how you put the scheduletogether. There are a lot of variables on a taped Olympics.'
NBC is being coy about its schedule. Some programmers believe thenetwork will slot sports like gymnastics, which has a large femalefollowing, against traditional ratings winners like the NFL. So, itmay come down to choosing between Deion and Dominique.
'There may be one or two really compelling events during thelength of the Games that may give us a run for our money,' Ebersolsaid. 'What we're looking for are event fans. It's why you get higherratings for the Oscars and the Super Bowl.'
Fred Fried, senior vice president for marketing of SFX SportsGroup, a marketing and management company, thinks NBC won't have muchto worry about because of the clout wielded by the Olympics.
'The American public will continue to embrace the Olympics,' hesaid. 'The brand is as strong as ever and NBC does a good jobenhancing it. It may not be reflected in terms of ratings becausewe're in a new world. People will know the results. But you knowwhat? That may make them want to watch.
'We may learn that September is a terrific time for the Olympics.Nobody's on vacation. Everybody's home, watching television. The NFLis just 1 1/2 days. College football is just one day. It seems like along time since we had the Olympics.'
